Price Tool
CS2 Odds Edge Calculator
Compare the market price with your own probability estimate before treating a CS2 pick as playable.
Odds inputs
Compare your probability to the market price
This does not predict a match. It checks whether your own estimate is meaningfully above the break-even probability.
Implied probability
54.1%
Fair odds from your estimate
1.79
Model edge
1.9%
How the odds edge is calculated
Your edge is your own win-probability estimate minus the probability implied by the odds. Decimal odds of 1.85 imply 54.05%, so if you rate the team at 56% your edge is about 1.95 percentage points and the expected value is +0.036 units per unit staked.
Formulas
- Implied probability
implied % = 100 / decimal odds- Edge
edge = your win % - implied %- Expected value per 1 unit
EV = p x (odds - 1) - (1 - p)- Fair odds for your estimate
fair odds = 1 / p- Suggested stake
stake % = min(25% x Kelly, 2%), Kelly = (odds x p - 1) / (odds - 1)
Worked example: 1.85 odds, 56% estimate, 250 bankroll
| Implied probability | 54.05% |
|---|---|
| Edge | +1.95 points (thin edge) |
| Fair odds at 56% | 1.786 |
| Expected value | +0.036 units per unit |
| Full Kelly | 4.24% of bankroll |
| Quarter Kelly, capped | 1.06% = 2.65 stake |
What it does not tell you: The result is only as good as your probability estimate. If your 56% is really 52%, the same price is a losing bet. The tool does not estimate win chances for you.
Odds FAQ
What is implied probability?
Implied probability is the break-even rate represented by the odds. Decimal odds of 2.00 imply 50%, while 1.80 implies about 55.6%.
Does a positive edge mean I should bet?
No. A positive edge only means your estimate is above the market break-even point. You still need strong match context and disciplined stake sizing.
Why does the calculator cap the model stake?
The cap prevents one estimate from creating an oversized stake. Probability estimates are uncertain, especially in esports markets with roster, map, and timing changes.
Estimate Risk
A small probability error can erase the edge. Use conservative estimates and pass when your match research is incomplete.